A New Middle East Mega-War Is Unfolding Right Before Our Eyes

By Yossef Bodansky,OILPRICE- Apr 24, 2019, 5:00 PM CDTJoin Our Community

Iran is leading a new bloc, with Turkey and Qatar, intent on remaking the greater Middle East. The Iranian leadership recognizes that this drive might lead to a regional war and is actively preparing for such an eventuality.

Iran’s timing is logical. The main fratricidal wars in the region – mainly in Syria and Iraq – are slowing down because of the exhaustion of the main warring factions. The modern Arab states of the past decades are effectively gone. Neither continued recognition by global powers and international entities nor the chimera of elections will alter these dynamics.

Hence, the overall dynamic affects all the countries of the region and all the great powers with interests there.

Russia, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and Israel are taking active measures – from political to military – to contain and reverse the Iranian ascent. In all of this, the U.S. is proving irrelevant, despite its strident anti-Iran policies.

A new bottom-up, decentralized reality is emerging on its own, and the main powers involved in the region are determined to exploit the dynamic in order to better control the post-crisis greater Middle East.

At the core of the anticipated escalation and possible war is the race between Iran and Turkey for pre-eminence in the area of Lebanon-Syria-Jordan-Iraq, as well as the dismemberment and collapse of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. It is logical to assume that a clash with Israel would inevitably ensue, for Israel is expected to strenuously resist the collapse of the regional order, which would be to its detriment